UOC industrial PhD project revolutionizes entrepreneurship with a simulator for start-ups

Starting a business is a complex and deeply personal process, influenced by the entrepreneur's skills, experience and values, and by the socioeconomic and cultural conditions of their environment. Success often depends not only on an innovative idea or value proposition, but also on adequate planning and execution in all areas of the business. Common planning errors or lack of experience can lead to poor decisions that affect the sustainability and growth of the business.

In the world of start-ups, the experience of professionals who have been through the process of starting and growing a business is highly valued. This practical knowledge helps to avoid common mistakes, plan growth effectively and make critical decisions with greater confidence.

In short, early-stage business management requires agility, adaptability and a strategy that departs from traditional management. When it comes to management and flexibility, start-ups and traditional companies are very different. Start-ups are more agile because they have flat structures that facilitate communication and quick decision-making, which is essential in dynamic market environments. In contrast, traditional companies have hierarchical structures that can slow down decision-making. In addition, start-ups embrace risk and innovation as part of their core values, while traditional organizations tend to be more conservative, focusing on stability and protecting existing business models, which can hinder their ability to adapt quickly to change.

Understanding this reality and wanting to provide a practical solution, Incapto, the Barcelona-based start-up that has revolutionized the highly traditional and slow-to-innovate speciality coffee industry, has been collaborating with the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) on an industrial doctoral project since 2022, led by student Francesc Font, as part of the UOC's Information and Knowledge Society programme. The project team is developing a start-up analytics simulator to help entrepreneurs identify risks and weaknesses in their projects, going a step further than simply assessing the initial value proposition. Investing time and resources in careful planning during the start-up phase not only increases the chances of success, but also prepares the company for sustainable and scalable growth.

Incapto: revolutionizing the traditional coffee industry

Incapto was founded just before the pandemic with the aim of disrupting the traditional coffee industry. Its inspiration came from the desire to solve a major problem: the waste generated by coffee capsules. "After researching the market, we realized that we could create a better overall coffee consumption experience for both companies and individuals, in terms of quality, cost and sustainability," said Joaquim Mach, the project supervisor at Incapto.

By fully integrating the industrial process – from machinery to raw material sourcing, roasting and delivery of speciality coffee – Incapto has eliminated intermediaries to offer more competitive prices and sustainable practices. Mach said: "We use technology extensively across the entire value chain, both by having connected machines (Internet of Things) and by automating processes that allow us to maintain a direct-to-consumer model." A good example of this is its innovative subscription platform and the smart software in its connected coffee machines, which have attracted more than 20,000 individual customers and 2,000 businesses.

With nearly €10 million in funding from several rounds of investment, the company has a team of 30 employees and strong plans for international expansion. They are currently growing directly in neighbouring countries such as France, Italy and Portugal, and continuing to internationalize through distribution and representation in other markets. They also intend to tailor the business to each country, using different business models depending on the maturity of the sector and the coffee consumption habits in each market.

Although Incapto has established itself as an industry leader in less than three years, it is important to emphasize that the business is run by a group of second- and third-generation entrepreneurs with previous experience in creating and managing companies. They are also investors and consultants in other projects. Mach said: "Having assembled a very strong entrepreneurial team surrounded by investors who are also business leaders, we decided to rebel against the notion that 9 out of 10 start-ups close within three years."

After a complex launch – just one week before the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 – the Incapto team realized that their business idea could move forward thanks to previous experience in other ventures. This know-how was crucial in avoiding mistakes and determining where to focus the company's efforts and resources. Often, difficulties can become opportunities, and this is the case for Incapto, where the lessons learned have sown the seeds for the ongoing industrial doctoral project.

Aware of the importance of planning and experience for business success, Incapto and the UOC initiated their partnership with the strategic applied research project "Study and analysis of key success factors in early-stage entrepreneurship: Co-creation of a start-up analytics simulator". The project aims to create a simulator to help the start-up ecosystem increase its chances of survival. This tool is designed to inform entrepreneurs about the mistakes to avoid and the right decisions to make, based on the combined experience of a significant number of multidisciplinary start-up cases that have been successfully launched and serve as the basis of the methodology.

The project is focused on developing a mathematical model and simulator to help entrepreneurs assess potential risks and weaknesses in their projects.

It began by exploring the factors that influence the survival and success of start-ups through quantitative and qualitative analysis, with the ultimate aim of improving early-stage decision-making and increasing the likelihood of success.

According to the project supervisors, the start-up ecosystem needs new analytical systems to understand the potential for survival and growth of emerging companies, which operate in highly ambiguous and complex settings. This need is one of the main driving forces behind the development of the simulator, on which industrial doctoral student Francesc Font is working. The aim is to provide tools that help navigate these uncertain environments and make more informed decisions: "To do this, we've developed a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative analysis of the factors that determine the survival and success of start-ups with qualitative research through interviews with successful entrepreneurs and investors."

To develop the tool, the project is utilizing artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies to address the uncertainties faced by entrepreneurs and investors. The methodology includes the analysis of forty start-up cases, most of them from Barcelona. The research framework divides the cases into four groups: ten successful cases of companies acquired by larger companies or that remain profitable and operational, ten early-stage companies, ten venture capital and technology investors and ten failed start-ups.

The final group has made it possible to identify factors that can lead to failure and how to avoid them in the future. At the same time, interviews with successful entrepreneurs and investors have provided qualitative insights. With these anonymized data, the research has sought to create a balanced framework that highlights success factors and lessons learned from failures.

Based on Incapto's experience, Mach's key advice for entrepreneurs is to focus on ensuring that your product or service truly meets a market need from the outset. It is important to check that customers need and are willing to buy what you are selling before scaling the business. Many entrepreneurs spend too much effort on other aspects that are irrelevant if this fit has not been confirmed first: "You can't start scaling (in team size, funding or investment, markets, etc.) until you have effectively determined that the market accepts and is willing to invest in your product or service."

Impact of the project on Incapto and the entrepreneurial ecosystem

The strategic research project with the UOC has had a tangible impact on Incapto's sustainability and growth. The company uses the knowledge it has gained to make more efficient decisions and adapt its strategies to the different stages of development, from seed to scale: "Decisions are made in a much more evidence-based way, using information that is relevant to the stage of the company," said Mach. Similarly, by studying the main factors of failure or success in the ecosystem and analysing megatrends and external factors, Incapto has been able to avoid common mistakes and optimize its resources to improve its competitiveness in a highly dynamic market.

In addition, the project aims to revolutionize the entrepreneurial ecosystem by offering an innovative AI-based tool that promotes efficiency in scaling new start-ups. The tool will provide entrepreneurs and investors with a deeper understanding of the factors that influence start-up success: "With this project, we hope to contribute to reducing the mortality rate of start-ups or help them scale more efficiently and quickly through better decision-making," said Enric Serradell, professor and researcher at the Management & eLearning (MeL) research group of the UOC's Faculty of Economics and Business and academic supervisor of the project together with Pablo Lara –professor and researcher of the Learning, Media, and Entertainment Research Group (GAME) from the Faculty of Information and Communication Sciences–. This fosters a more robust and dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, where new companies have greater chances of sustainable and scalable growth. The dissemination of this tool could have a multiplier effect, benefiting numerous projects and driving innovation across different sectors.

From an academic perspective, the project enriches theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of entrepreneurship and business management. It provides a methodological framework that can be used for future research and for training students in disciplines such as business administration, innovation and data analysis. It is also an example of effective collaboration between academia and industry, promoting knowledge and technology transfer. Such synergies are essential for developing solutions that have a real impact on business and society.

Finally, on a broader front, the project has the potential to benefit society by fostering the creation of more sustainable and successful businesses that create jobs and economic value. For example, Incapto's value proposition includes reducing waste from coffee capsules and promoting more sustainable practices in coffee consumption. In this way, the project not only promotes economic development, but also contributes to environmental sustainability. In addition, by improving the chances of success for start-ups, it enriches the business fabric and stimulates innovation and competitiveness both locally and globally.

Continued collaboration with the UOC

Incapto intends to continue its collaboration with the UOC through the Open Future Lab, an initiative that also involves Jordi Sánchez Navarro, dean of the Faculty of Information and Communication Sciences and research leader of GAME research group. Together, they will work on forward-looking models through megatrend analysis and design thinking. This synergy between industry and academia reinforces the commitment of both organizations to innovation and sustainable development.

Their partnership represents an important step in improving the entrepreneurial ecosystem in Catalonia by combining practical experience with academic knowledge. In this way, the project team is creating tools that will benefit not only Incapto, but also a range of new companies seeking to carve out a place for themselves in highly competitive markets.

The Industrial Doctorates Plan is a public initiative of the Government of Catalonia, promoted at the end of 2012, in collaboration with the Catalan university and research system, closely related to doctoral training, knowledge transfer and the development of R+D+I projects in collaboration with the socioeconomic environment – companies and institutions. 

This UOC industrial doctoral project supports UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation.

UOC R&I

The UOC's research and innovation (R&I) is helping overcome pressing challenges faced by global societies in the 21st century by studying interactions between technology and human & social sciences with a specific focus on the network society, e-learning and e-health.

Over 500 researchers and more than 50 research groups work in the UOC's seven faculties, its eLearning Research programme and its two research centres: the Internet Interdisciplinary Institute (IN3) and the eHealth Center (eHC).

The university also develops online learning innovations at its eLearning Innovation Center (eLinC), as well as UOC community entrepreneurship and knowledge transfer via the Hubbik platform.

Open knowledge and the goals of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development serve as strategic pillars for the UOC's teaching, research and innovation. More information: research.uoc.edu.