AI will force restructuring of almost one in four jobs over the next five years

Artificial intelligence (AI) – and generative AI, in particular – is already beginning to have a tangible impact on the economy and the labour market. These effects vary depending on the area of the labour market and between roles, but several studies have started to paint a clear picture, and everything points to these effects only increasing. Desirée Gómez Cardosa is an analyst in the Educational Trends and Innovation Observatory at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya's (UOC) eLearning Innovation Center (eLinC). She has produced a report that sets out the scope of the transformation ahead: nearly one in four jobs will need to be restructured over the next five years. The report has been published as open access in the UOC's institutional repository.

Just as the power of machines replaced that of people in the industrial revolution, the replacement of human cognitive functions by generative AI is the prelude to occupational effects that, according to experts, will take place at three different levels.

There will, logically, be new jobs created for people qualified in the development of AI and data science. Likewise, we can clearly foresee the disappearance of jobs that will become obsolete thanks to the automation of tasks. The sectors at greatest risk are those relating to the automation of industrial and surveillance processes and, as a result of generative AI specifically, many tasks related to word processing, data entry or programming. 

The third level of effects, between the generation and disappearance of jobs, will be the retraining of many workers to learn about new areas in order to meet their employers' new needs. According to the World Economic Forum, employers forecast that 23% of the jobs currently in existence will require some kind of restructuring in the next five years.

"In the medium term, the adoption of AI will increase the labour gap between people with generative AI skills or a technological background and those without. The solution of acquiring new skills may not be enough for many workers due to the disappearance of some jobs," said Gómez Cardosa. In turn, Manel Fernández Jaria, a course instructor with the UOC's Faculty of Economics and Business, said that "AI could also create new job opportunities and roles that we cannot yet imagine. The professions of the future could require a unique combination of human skills, creativity, critical thinking and emotional understanding that machines cannot yet fully replicate."

The challenge of new skills

These inequalities will pose a challenge to be faced by both policymakers and business owners. The data provided by the various reports obtained suggest that the disparities resulting from the rapid and changing landscape caused by AI may take time to be absorbed by the labour market. This is why higher education institutions will play an important role in providing rapid, high-quality training that meets the demands of the market with lifelong learning programmes that enable working professionals to update their skills in the field of new technologies.

"We're facing a major challenge in terms of the proper taking on board of technologies by the business community," said Gómez Cardosa. "It entails the profound transformation of production, management and decision-making processes for companies, which will have to effectively integrate these technologies into their operations to remain competitive in a constantly evolving market. If they don't, they'll have no future," said Fernández Jaria.

This challenge also affects education, which must be able to meet the demand for new professional profiles as a result of the entry of AI into the industry," said Gómez Cardosa. "In education, there can be two speeds," said Fernández Jaria, who continued: "If governments don't make quick and agile strategic decisions, the social gap will definitively increase between those receiving obsolete formal training with little added value, as is already happening, and those who can afford higher level training adapted to the new circumstances."

Paradoxically, despite being in the age of data science, the degree of certainty about these changes is still difficult to determine, partly due to the volatility of the technology itself. "The landscape has changed exponentially due to the boom in generative AI popularized by OpenAI with ChatGPT, and 2024 promises new features that can change these forecasts again. But, in any case, all the sources broadly agree on the conclusions already mentioned," said Gómez Cardosa.

Precisely because of this changing panorama, with AI evolving and the likely incorporation of advanced robotics, Gómez Cardosa said that the UOC's Educational Trends and Innovation Observatory will have to carry out a "detailed and periodic examination of the data provided by these sectors to know how it will affect society and learning".

This UOC report contributes to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically SDG 4, Quality Education, and SDG 9, Industries, Innovation and Infrastructure.

Reference document:

Àmbits d’afectació de la IA en el mercat laboral i les habilitats (available in Spanish and Catalan)

Author: Gómez Cardosa, Desirée 

http://hdl.handle.net/10609/148606

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